Morgan Stanley Warns
Morgan Stanley predicts: the next major AI capability leap arrives in H1 2026. The confidence stems from compute scaling — applying 10x compute effectively doubles model intelligence. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Thinking scores 83% on GDPVal, reaching human expert level.
The bottleneck: power. A U.S. power shortfall of 9-18 gigawatts is projected through 2028. Executives are executing workforce reductions citing AI efficiency.
The real alarm: technology moves fast, infrastructure and policy lag dangerously behind.